Gibraltar Just Blasted Open Europe’s Prediction Markets Ban – And The $20B Industry Will Never Be The Same

(AsiaGameHub) –   Everyone thought prediction markets were dead on arrival in Europe. 11 regulators have already banned them, most recently Spain’s DGOJ last week, and VC-backed platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket were stuck lobbying to no end. No one expected tiny Gibraltar to throw the entire $20 billion sector a lifeline, bucking every other EU jurisdiction’s hardline stance to license these platforms before anyone else.

Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner Andrew Lyman confirmed the territory already licensed ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction market partner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as a betting intermediary. It is now drafting a bespoke regulatory regime for prediction markets, set to launch alongside its full Gambling Act overhaul in 2026. The regime will mandate AML, social responsibility and undesirable market restriction requirements for all licensees.

Spain gave Kalshi a 4-month window to prove its service differs from standard online betting, while France, Portugal, Romania and Ukraine have all blocked Polymarket outright. Gibraltar’s regime treats prediction markets as an extension of existing betting exchange models, not a radical new product that falls outside existing regulatory guardrails. It rejects the common EU framing that these platforms undermine existing gambling rules.

This isn’t a random, unplanned policy call. Gibraltar made the exact same first-mover play on online gambling in the 1990s, long before other European jurisdictions set up their own licensing systems. It wants to become the global go-to reputable licensing hub for prediction market operators, who are currently locked out of almost every major regulated market worldwide.

Existing Gibraltar gambling licensees don’t get sidelined under the new rules. Prediction market operators face the exact same AML and consumer protection requirements as traditional sportsbooks, so they get no regulatory advantage. Traditional operators can even launch their own prediction market products or partner with new entrants to capture new user cohorts if they choose.

At least three major prediction market platforms will submit Gibraltar license applications before the end of 2024.